Will there be an Windows 11?

According to Michael Niehaus, former Principal Program Manager at Microsoft, it seems that, yes. It is becoming increasingly likely that Windows 10 will become Windows 11. But that doesn’t really change much, beyond the marketing message you’d put behind such a change. We don’t expect this to change anything related to Windows as a Service (which means that yes, you’ll still get free upgrades, and unless someone decides to make more unexpected changes to WaaS, you’ll see them again every six months), licensing, or SKUs (editions).

Why change the name at all? It really comes down to marketing: it’s really hard to market something as “new and improved” if the name doesn’t change. In recent years, this has led to such amusing names as “Windows 10 Creators Update” (and even more “creative” names like “Fall Creators Update”), because you need some kind of name to serve as an “anchor” for the new features and capabilities.

Will there still be 'technical' names like 21H1, 20H2, 20H1, etc.?

Yes, most likely, because it's just a shortcut to tell you which specific version you're using. We’d expect to see a 22H1 version (or perhaps just a 22H2, since there might not be any compelling reason—or even time—to develop a 22H1 version) on top of Windows 11, which would still be 21H2 itself. But these names aren’t intended—and don’t really work very well—for marketing purposes. You’ll only see them in WINVER so you can tell at a glance what you’re running.

So what will we see coming out?

This is what we expect:

• Windows 11 in all the same SKUs (editions) that you see today. Everyone will be able to upgrade for free (subject to standard licensing restrictions—for example, you cannot upgrade to a later Enterprise version if you have stopped paying for your E3/E5 subscription—but you can upgrade to Pro).
• A “feature pack” that installs on top of Windows 11 to provide a new shell and associated UI components (e.g., rounded corners). This will likely include an option to disable it, for companies that can’t handle the change and wish to continue using the Windows 10 (at least for a while—eventually, there will be no desire to continue supporting both user interfaces, so you’ll be pushed toward the new one). This feature pack can be updated independently of the operating system version, so it can evolve over time.
• An LTSC version that cannot receive the new shell and associated user interface components. These LTSC versions are designed to remain exactly the same throughout their support period (now five years instead of 10, asMicrosoft previously announced), so they are fundamentally incompatible with this concept of “revised and updated independently.” (So will this LTSC version still be called Windows 10 even though it won’t have the Windows 11? That’s entirely possible—it also helps reinforce the argument for businesses that this isn’t a general-purpose operating system version you should be considering.)

Our expectations

Yes, our expectations for the new features in the “ Windows ” 11 version align with what others have suggested (in too many links to list here): a fresh coat of paint. Lots of visual appeal. A new Start menu (without live tiles). Improvements to the clipboard and copy/paste functions. Updates to built-in apps (but not all of them). Updated settings pages (though not all of them). Fewer instances where you have to fall back on the Control Panel (though you’ll still need it). A new Store app (which might actually contain items you want, such as links to winget ). A few new fonts. Updated sounds (will the startup sound return?). A better out-of-box experience (OOBE) (which most companies never see because of unattend.xml orAutopilot).

A feature we would like to see ? stub apps

Currently, built-in applications are pre-installed (hence "in box") and update frequently, which generates a lot of unnecessary network traffic if you don't use these applications. Imagine if these applications were instead stubs that don't install until you run the application for the first time. The savings in network traffic (as well as some minor reductions in disk space) would be appreciable. It's not clear from the rumours whether the apps would be stubs by default, or whether they could be "stubbed" due to non-use. I hope for the former.

It’s interesting to note that the only other “non-UI” improvement I’ve seen discussed is related to Bluetooth. There will likely be a few other features that “tag along” because they were already in development anyway—since the 20H2 and 21H1 releases are primarily “no new features” releases, there’s a backlog of teams that actually wanted to ship new stuff, so there will probably be a hodgepodge of other things. Not necessarily exciting, just in the sense of what we’re used to with feature updates for Windows 10.

What about these discussions regarding “the platform for Windows 10 ends in October 2025" that have been going on for several days?

It's not really related—you just never noticed that the media life cycle date in Windows 10 always listed a 10-year support lifecycle. It’s just a side effect of the fact that Windows 10 is covered bythe “fixed lifecycle policy” and is more of a “display issue” that should be resolved before 2025—there are many ways to handle this without affecting Windows 11, but the bump certainly provides an opportunity to shift this date range (for example, from 2021 to 2026—with five years and no extended support, it wouldn’t change much, just adding one year).

What about the stories about build numbers going from 21nnn to 22nnn? 

It's just a sign that a new fork is being created for the “next, next” version of Windows 10. The build numbers are being incremented to leave a little room for a few more builds in the current fork (Cobalt), so this is a sign that a “release to manufacturing” (RTM) approval is imminent. That doesn’t mean much in the era of the “everything can be fixed in the next cumulative update” approach.

Will there be a new ADK? Most likely, yes, as indicated by the release notes for the Windows Server 2022. But we wouldn’t expect many new features in this kit beyond what’s already included in the kit Windows Server. Will there be a new version of MDT? Most likely not, since the ADK and unattend.xml are unlikely to change in a way that would require it.

In short...

We'll be tuning in on the 24th to hear the official announcement, which will probably be followed by a flurry of blogs and additional publications explaining everything the event won't cover directly - it will focus on the UI features, not the core things IT professionals want to know. It will focus on user interface features, not the core things that IT professionals want to know.

Until then, enjoy all the rumours...